Cashflow Score by Cladfy Inc.

What is the Cashflow Score?

The Cashflow Score is an AI-powered default prediction score delivered through the CashIQ platform by Cladfy Inc. It is not a credit bureau score; it does not access CRB data, credit reports, or traditional credit histories.

Instead, it analyzes only the transaction data available, M-PESA statements, bank statements, and other mobile money data (e.g., MTN MoMo, Airtel Money) to predict the likelihood that a borrower will default on a loan. The score ranges from 300 to 850, where higher scores indicate lower default risk.

The engine uses a proprietary multi-pillar analysis framework adapted specifically for cashflow patterns across African mobile money and banking markets. The accuracy of the score is directly tied to the volume and quality of transaction data provided.

Five Credit Pillars

Every score is built from five independently weighted pillars that assess default risk from different angles:

Pillar	What It Measures
Income & Capacity	Can they repay? Monthly earnings, formal income sources, disposable income buffer
Cash Flow Stability	Are they consistent? Transaction regularity, income trends, and financial network depth
Debt Burden & Leverage	How exposed are they? Overdraft usage, multi-lender exposure, spending rate vs income
Repayment Behavior	Do they pay back? Verified repayment rates, overdraft discipline, escalation patterns
Financial Sophistication	How mature are they? Savings habits, insurance, essential vs discretionary spending

The engine also applies cross-pillar interaction adjustments; consistent strength is rewarded, while critical weakness in any pillar triggers compounding penalties. For example, low income combined with heavy debt is penalized more harshly than either alone.

What Data Goes In

The engine consumes all available financial data as a combined input: M-PESA statements, bank statements, and other mobile money platforms (e.g., MTN MoMo, Airtel Money) when available. The more data sources provided, the more accurate and comprehensive the score.

Beyond raw transaction data, the CashIQ platform extracts deeper financial signals that are invisible in transaction records alone:

Enriched Capability	Why It Matters for Default Reduction
Disposable income	The #1 affordability signal that measures the actual repayment buffer after expenses
Income volatility & trend	Catches borrowers with declining or erratic income before they default
Verified repayment rate	Ground-truth repaid ÷ taken across all lenders, not estimates
Zero-balance frequency	A leading stress indicator accounts for those that regularly hit zero, which are high-risk
Overdraft dependency	Covers all overdraft products, not just individual providers
Net cashflow trend	Detects deteriorating monthly (income − expenses) trajectory
Debt service coverage	"Can they afford the next payment?" Disposable income vs monthly obligations
Savings & SACCO activity	Active savers and SACCO members default at significantly lower rates
Gambling detection	Heavy gambling spending relative to income triggers proportional risk penalties
Transaction history depth	Applicants with a thin history receive capped scores until trust is established
Discretionary spending ratio	High entertainment/airtime spend vs income flags financial indiscipline

Every enriched field is optional. The engine uses whatever is available and falls back gracefully. Even a single enriched field improves accuracy.

Risk Tiers

Score Range	Tier	Default Risk	Suggested Action
780–850	Excellent	Very low	Pre-approved, best rates
680–779	Good	Low	Standard approval
560–679	Fair	Moderate	Conditional approval, reduced limits
400–559	Poor	High	Enhanced due diligence
300–399	Very Poor	Very high	Decline or micro-loan only

Built-in Safeguards

Safeguard	How It Protects Lenders
Data sufficiency gate	Applicants with little or no transaction data receive 300 (data_sufficient: false). The score only reflects what the data supports; no assumptions are made beyond available transactions.
Thin-file score cap	Short transaction history = capped maximum score. Trust is earned over time.
Gambling cross-pillar penalty	Heavy gambling impact extends beyond a single pillar; it can meaningfully reduce the final score
Income decline emergency brake	Sharply declining income triggers additional penalties even if other pillars look healthy
Spending rate detection	Applicants spending nearly all of their income are flagged; no buffer = high default risk
Deduplication engine	When multiple data sources contain overlapping information, the engine automatically uses the most accurate source and prevents double-counting

Explainable Scoring : top_factors

Every response includes helping and hurting factors that explain the score in plain language:

"top_factors": {
  "helping": [
    {"signal": "monthly_income", "label": "Average monthly income", "value": "XX.XX"},
    {"signal": "savings_behavior", "label": "Savings activity", "value": "XX.XX"},
    {"signal": "exact_repayment_rate", "label": "Verified loan repayment rate", "value": "XX.XX"}
  ],
  "hurting": [
    {"signal": "gambling_penalty", "label": "Gambling activity risk", "value": "XX.XX"},
    {"signal": "zero_balance_rate", "label": "Zero-balance frequency", "value": "XX.XX"},
    {"signal": "spending_rate", "label": "Spending rate vs income", "value": "XX.XX"}
  ]
}

• value: 0.0 (worst) to 1.0 (best) for each signal

• Helping: the applicant's strongest credit signals

• Hurting: where they're weakest; and what they'd need to improve

Use this for:

• Underwriter review: quick insight into why a borderline applicant scored where they did

• Applicant feedback: actionable guidance ("reducing your overdraft usage would improve your score")

• Audit trail: full signal-level transparency

API Integration

Example

API Request

{
  "overview": {
    "mpesa_transaction_count": "XX.XX",
    "paid_in_average_pm": "XX.XX",
    "loan_dependency_ratio": "XX.XX"
  },
  "data": {
    "summary": {
      "loans_taken_count": "XX.XX",
      "loans_repaid_count": "XX.XX",
      "zero_balance_rate_percentage": "XX.XX"
    },
    "cashflow": {
      "monthly": [
        {"month": "Period", "total_in": "XX.XX", "total_out": "XX.XX"},
        {"month": "Period", "total_in": "XX.XX", "total_out": "XX.XX"}
      ],
      "averages": {"avg_monthly_in": "XX.XX", "avg_monthly_out": "XX.XX"}
    },
    "savings": {"details": {"total_amount": "XX.XX", "total_transactions": "XX.XX"}},
    "gambling": {"overview": {"total_amount": "XX.XX", "total_transactions": "XX.XX"}},
    "disposable_income": {
      "last_3months_disposable_income": [
        {"month": "Period", "amount": "XX.XX"},
        {"month": "Period", "amount": "XX.XX"},
        {"month": "Period", "amount": "XX.XX"}
      ]
    }
  }
}

API Response

{
  "request_id": "a1b2c3d4-...",
  "prediction": "XX.XX",
  "probability": "XX.XX",
  "score": "XX.XX",
  "risk_tier": {
    "tier": "Tier",
    "min_score": "XX.XX"
  },
  "top_factors": { "helping": [...], "hurting": [...] },
  "pillars": {
    "income_capacity":          {"label": "Income & Capacity",          "score": "XX.XX"},
    "cashflow_stability":       {"label": "Cash Flow Stability",        "score": "XX.XX"},
    "debt_leverage":            {"label": "Debt Burden & Leverage",     "score": "XX.XX"},
    "repayment_behavior":       {"label": "Repayment Behavior",         "score": "XX.XX"},
    "financial_sophistication": {"label": "Financial Sophistication",   "score": "XX.XX"}
  },
  "data_sufficient": "true/False",
  "enriched_data_available": "true/False",
  "scoring_version": "XX.XX",
  "latency_ms": "XX.XX"
}

Field	Description
score	Final Cashflow Score (300–850)
risk_tier	Tier label and threshold
top_factors	Helping and hurting signals explaining the score
pillars	Per-pillar score breakdown (0.0–1.0 each)
data_sufficient	Whether enough data existed for meaningful scoring
enriched_data_available	Whether enriched data was provided
latency_ms	Processing time in milliseconds

How the Score Is Produced

The engine uses a proprietary two-stage architecture:

1. Machine Learning Model: A trained model processes the available transaction data to produce a default probability.

2. Multi-Pillar Analysis: The probability is combined with proprietary signal analysis across all five pillars, cross-pillar interactions, and calibration curves to produce the final score.

Design principles:

• ✅ Transaction-data only, no CRB, no credit bureau, no external data beyond provided statements

• ✅ Multi-source, M-PESA, bank statements, and other mobile money data combined for maximum accuracy

• ✅ Data-limited, the score only reflects what the available transaction data supports

• ✅ Deduplicated, overlapping data sources are automatically resolved to prevent double-counting

• ✅ Deterministic, same input always produces the same score

• ✅ Calibrated, score distribution maps to real-world default rates

• ✅ Transparent, full signal-level explainability for every decision

Frequently Asked Questions

1. How should I use top_factors? Helping factors explain why a score is high; hurting factors explain why it isn't higher. Share with applicants as actionable feedback or use for underwriter review of borderline cases.

2. Is the score deterministic? Yes. Identical input always produces an identical score. No randomness.

3. How does deduplication work? When multiple data sources contain overlapping information, the engine automatically uses the most accurate source and disregards the duplicate. This prevents unfair double-counting.

4. What about applicants with a very short history? The engine applies a thin-file score cap to applicants with limited transaction history, who can only achieve a limited maximum score until more data becomes available.

5. How does gambling affect the score? Proportionally. Occasional small amounts have minimal impact. Gambling exceeding a significant portion of income triggers a meaningful penalty that affects the overall score, not just one pillar.

6. How often should I re-score a borrower? Re-score whenever you have a new or updated statement. For existing borrowers, a quarterly re-score using the latest 6-month statement provides good monitoring coverage.